A Year Ago on Equitable Growth: Fifteen Worthy Reads from the Past Week or so: July 12, 2018

stacks and stacks of books

TOP MUST REMEMBER: Cory Doctorow: I Was Naive: “I’ve been thinking of all those ‘progressive’ Senators who said that… Jeff Sessions was a gentleman, honorable, decent—just someone whose ideas they disagreed with. They approved Sessions for AG on that basis, and he architected this kids-in-cages moment…

Worthy Reads at Equitable Growth:

  1. Kate Bahn: Understanding the Importance of Monopsony Power in the U.S. Labor Market: “In a dynamic monopsony model, so-called search frictions—including imperfect information and other constraints to job mobility… would give employers more power to set wages below competitive levels, while still maintaining a sufficient supply of workers…. Doug Webber tests the hypothesis of widespread dynamic monopsony and whether search frictions appear to maintain low wages across the U.S. labor market in his 2015 paper, ‘Firm market power and the earnings distribution’. Webber finds pervasive monopsony across the labor market, with the key finding that less monopsony power would lead to less income inequality…”

  2. Equitable Growth: Work and Family Researchers Network’s Latest Conference: “Boushey also participated in an “author-meets-readers” event for The Triple Bind of Single-Parent Families: Resources, Employment and Policies to Improve Well-Being, a collection edited by Rense Nieuwenhuis at the University of Stockholm and Laurie C. Maldonado at the Stone Center of Socio-Economic Inequality at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. The book, available through Open Access, deals with the challenges faced by single parents and their children—an interplay of inadequate resources, employment, and government policies—drawing from research across disciplines and countries…”

  3. Nick Bunker et al.: JOLTS Day Graphs: May 2018 Report Edition: “The Beveridge Curve, which estimates the unemployment rate for a given amount of job openings, has returned to its level during the expansion of the early 2000s…”

  4. Elizabeth Jacobs: California’s Paid Family Leave Policy Is Decreasing Nursing Home Use and Saving Medicaid Dollars: “Kanika Arora and… Douglas Wolf provide the first-ever empirical study assessing the impact of paid family and medical leave… utiliz[ing] longitudinal, state-level data to assess whether California’s state paid family and medical leave policy led to a decrease in nursing home utilization. California enacted a comprehensive paid leave policy in 2004, providing access to six weeks of leave for both new parents and family caregivers…. The estimated effect of paid family and medical leave on nursing home utilization in California is a decline of more than 11 percent in the share of the elderly residing in nursing homes…”

  5. Barbara Kiviat: The Art of Deciding with Data: Evidence From How Employers Translate Credit Reports into Hiring Decisions: “Half of US employers consider personal credit history when hiring…. Faced with the context-free numbers of a credit report, and without predictively valid credit scores to fall back on, hiring professionals struggle to make sense of financial data without knowing the details of job candidates’ lives. They therefore reach beyond credit reports, both by inferring events that led to delinquent debt and by testing to see if candidates can offer morally redeeming accounts. A process of moral storytelling re-inflates credit reports with social meaning and prevents people with bad credit from getting jobs…”

Worthy Reads Elsewhere:

  1. In my view, Kalmoe’s harply distinguishing “ideology” from “partisanship” seems to me to be a potentially fatal flaw in what is otherwise an absolutely brilliant essay. We East African Plains Apes think in groups: we outsource a great deal of what we believe to others whom we trust. Thus “partisanship” and “ideology” reinforce each other massively. But that also means that when thought-leader elites change what the partisans with access to audiences say, people’s “ideologies” will change as well—without them thinking about it much, if it all. At least, that is what I see as the potential hole in Kalmoe’s argument: Nathan P. Kalmoe: Uses & Abuses of Ideology: “Ideology is a central construct in political psychology, and researchers claim large majorities of the public are ideological, but most fail to grapple with evidence of ideological innocence in most citizens…

  2. I get that the Trumpists are defined vis-a-vis other Americans by their fear and resentment of people of another race. But the question unaddressed in this—otherwise very good—paper is this: Did ‘economic anxiety’ tip us over into the current disastrous policy mess? I think the answer to that is surely “yes”. Miller appears to think that the answer is “no”, and I am not sure why: Steven V. Miller: Economic Anxiety or Racial Resentment? An Evaluation of Attitudes Toward Immigration in the U.S. From 1992 to 2016: “Does ‘economic anxiety’ explain attitudes toward immigration or can we better understood attitudes toward immigration as a function of ethnocentrism and racial resentment?…

  3. I am provoked by this framing that technology is becoming “harder” to develop: “Harder” in what sense? “Harder” in the sense of being “more complicated” or “more difficult relative to our (increasing) resources”? The benchmark of constant research productivity” defined as the same real dollar expenditure on research produces the same proportional increase in output? I have heard people say that the benchmark should be that the same share of national product spent on R&D should produce the same proportional increase in output. I have heard people say that the benchmark should be that the natural growth in the share of national product spent on R&D should be such as to produce the same proportional increase in output. I have never heard anybody say that the benchmark is that the same real dollar expenditure on research produces the same proportional increase in output: Nicholas Bloom, John Van Reenen, Charles I. Jones, and Michael Webb: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?: “One of the key drivers of economic growth during the last half century is Moore’s Law: the empirical regularity that the number of transistors packed onto an integrated circuit serving as the central processing unit for a computer doubles approximately every two years…

  4. No, the Trump administration is not very competent at achieving its stated goals. But that does not mean that the Trump administration is not doing enormous harm under the radar by simply being its chaos-monkey essence. The smart David Leonhardt tries to advise people how to deal with this: David Leonhardt: Trump Tries to Destroy the West: “[Trump’s] behavior requires a response that’s as serious as the threat…

  5. Cory Doctorow: I Was Naive: “I’ve been thinking of all those ‘progressive’ Senators who said that… Jeff Sessions was a gentleman, honorable, decent—just someone whose ideas they disagreed with. They approved Sessions for AG on that basis, and he architected this kids-in-cages moment…

  6. Amitabh Chandra: “Judea Pearl’s new book ‘The Book of Why’ is extraordinary… politely drives a bus through most social-science, public-health, health-policy research (aka, regressing outcomes on outcomes) and nuances what learning can really happen from machine-learning…

  7. It is necessary to remember, every day, what Dan Froomkin reminds us of: THIS IS NOT NORMAL. This was a private cabinet meeting. Yes, there are always lots of leaks and lots of complaisant reporters who work for sources generating a cloud of misinformation in an attempt to seek personal advantage in the court that is the White House. But “our principal is an idiot” is a message that people in the White House rarely wish to send. But that is, as Dan Froomkin points out here, the message that the Whire House insiders are saying: Dan Froomkin: THIS IS NOT NORMAL: “In private FEMA remarks, Trump’s focus strays from hurricanes…

  8. Also see Alan Taylor: Nick Bunker: Understanding the importance of the household credit in high-income economies: “Atif Mian… and Amir Sufi… pulling together the evidence for what they call the “credit-driven household demand channel”…

  9. Doug Rushkoff: Survival of the Richest: “The hedge funders asked me the best way to maintain authority over their security forces after ‘the event’…

  10. Joseph Gagnon: QE Skeptics Overstate Their Case: “David Greenlaw, James Hamilton, Ethan Harris, and Kenneth West… argued that the consensus of previous studies overstates the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on long-term interest rates…

#weblogs #noted 

Liveblogging: The Anglo-Saxon Chronicle: Ceawlin and Friends

Journey To Normandy Scene 1

The Anglo-Saxon Chronicle (J.A. Giles and J. Ingram trans.): __: “A.D. 568. This year Ceawlin, and Cutha the brother of Ceawlin, fought with Ethelbert, and pursued him into Kent. And they slew two aldermen at Wimbledon, Oslake and Cnebba…

…A.D. 571. This year Cuthulf fought with the Britons at Bedford, and took four towns, Lenbury, Aylesbury, Benson, and Ensham. And this same year he died.

A.D. 577. This year Cuthwin and Ceawlin fought with the Britons, and slew three kings, Commail, and Condida, and Farinmail, on the spot that is called Derham, and took from them three cities, Gloucester, Cirencester, and Bath.

A.D. 583. This year Mauricius succeeded to the empire of the Romans.

A.D. 584. This year Ceawlin and Cutha fought with the Britons on the spot that is called Fretherne. There Cutha was slain. And Ceawlin took many towns, as well as immense booty and wealth. He then retreated to his own people.

A.D. 588. This year died King Ella; and Ethelric reigned after him five years.

A.D. 591. This year there was a great slaughter of Britons at Wanborough; Ceawlin was driven from his kingdom, and Ceolric reigned six years.

A.D. 592. This year Gregory succeeded to the papacy at Rome.

A.D. 593. This year died Ceawlin, and Cwichelm, and Cryda; and Ethelfrith succeeded to the kingdom of theNorthumbrians. He was the son of Ethelric; Ethelric of Ida…

#liveblogging #history #anglosaxonchronicle 

Liveblogging: The Anglo-Saxon Chronicle: The Holy Pope Gregory, and Columba

Journey To Normandy Scene 1

The Anglo-Saxon Chronicle (J.A. Giles and J. Ingram trans.): The Holy Pope Gregory, and Columba]: “A.D. 560. This year Ceawlin undertook the government of the West-Saxons; and Ella, on the death of Ida, that of the Northumbrians; each of whom reigned thirty winters…

…Ella was the son of Iff, Iff of Usfrey, Usfrey of Wilgis, Wilgis of Westerfalcon, Westerfalcon of Seafowl, Seafowl of Sebbald, Sebbald of Sigeat, Sigeat of Swaddy, Swaddy of Seagirt, Seagar of Waddy, Waddy of Woden, Woden of Frithowulf.

This year Ethelbert came to the kingdom of the Cantuarians, and held it fifty-three winters.

In his days the holy Pope Gregory sent us baptism. That was in the two and thirtieth year of his reign. And Columba, the mass-priest, came to the Picts, and converted them to the belief of Christ. They are the dwellers by the northern moors. And their king gave him the island of Hii, consisting of five hides, as they say, where Columba built a monastary. There he was abbot two and thirty winters; and there he died, when he was seventy-seven years old. The place his successors yet have.

The Southern Picts were long before baptized by Bishop Ninnia, who was taught at Rome. His church or monastery is at Hwiterne, hallowed in the name of St. Martin, where he resteth with many holy men. Now, therefore, shall there be ever in Hii an abbot, and no bishop; and to him shall be subject all the bishops of the Scots; because Columba was an abbot—no bishop…

#liveblogging #history #anglosaxonchronicle 

Annette Gordon-Reed: Some thoughts about Sally Hemings: Weekend Reading

Sally hemings images Sally Hemings Descendants Pictures Places to Visit Sally hemings Thomas jefferson children Descendants pictures and Annette Gordon Reed Some thoughts about Sally Hemings Weekend Reading and REOPEN MOAR Links

Annette Gordon-Reed: Some thoughts about Sally Hemings: “It makes no sense to think of her life out of the context of her family’s story. She was a part of a web of relationships put in place before she was born.Her specific context can only be discerned by garnering details from the archives. Simply looking at a statute book and/or looking at other people’s lives, and extrapolating to create a picture of SH’s life, will not do. She cannot be taken, nor should any one person be taken, as the embodiment of the system of American slavery…

…SH imparted her vision of her life to her son, Madison Hemings, through a story in which she used the leverage of law to negotiate a particular kind of life for herself and her children. It was not a perfect life; not the life that I, her biographer, would have wished for her. ut my wishes don’t count in trying to discover what people long ago thought they were doing. I have had to ask myself in considering her story: What would she have seen of women’s lives in the 18th Century?

She experienced a world in which women were, by and large, attached to men whom they could only hope would treat them well and keep whatever promises they made. Neither outcome was ever assured. It is wrong to say that SH could not have negotiated with TJ because the law didn’t allow it. Other members of her family (her siblings and their progeny, before and after SH and TJ were in France) negotiated with him to their advantage. Again, these were his wife’s relatives. This kind of connection rarely meant anything to other white enslavers, but it means something to TJ.

All the evidence indicates that he saw SH and her siblings through the prism of his feelings about his deceased wife, their older sister. He took his cue for how to deal with the Hemings siblings from her response to them. Many white women whose fathers had children with enslaved women insisted those children be sold or sent away. Martha Jefferson brought her siblings to live closely with her at Monticello. TJ made the eldest of her enslaved siblings, Robert Hemings, his personal valet when he was 12, replacing the adult Jupiter Evans. The Hemings women were at Martha’s deathbed, and carried the story of Martha’s request that TJ nor remarry and his promise that he would not.

SH’s son’s recollections presents her as a determined and resourceful person who used the tools at her disposal, law and her knowledge of TJ, to fashion a life for herself that allowed her to be with her family and ensured that her children would leave slavery behind.

Partus sequitur venture would end with her. It did. Only 2 people could have known the details of what happened in France: SH and TJ. Madison Hemings certainly talked to TJ. Some of the information about Williamsburg is pretty detailed. It is more likely that SH told her son.

Whether we like it or not, understand it or not, Madison Hemings clearly saw himself as part of a “family”. He uses the word. He calls SH “Mother” and TJ “Father”. He draws a circle around the 6 of them. There were family rituals and an important endpoint was always in mind: the emancipation of the children when they became adults. The “treaty” between his parents, as he terms it, was fulfilled.

After the author John Dos Passos brought Madison Hemings’s recollections to the attention of scholars in the mid-Twentieth Century,the near uniform response among white historians was to say that he was lying, or that his mother was lying about her life to try to look “good”. But the recollections fit with other information from the archives-the description of SH’s life from contemporary 3rd parties, information from TJ’s records, and from other sources. Whether we like what he is saying or not, it is the best source for SH’s vision of her life.

Of course all members of the Hemings family were victims of the system of slavery. But Sally Hemings presented herself as a forceful and knowledgeable actor in her own story; one who accomplished something that was extremely important to her. I cannot ignore that.


Risks of Debt: The Real Flaw in Reinhart-Rogoff: Hoisted from the Archives

There never was a 90% cliff. And most of the downward slope in teh scatter came not from debt accumulation but from growth that had been slow for other reasons. See Owen Zidar (2013): Debt to GDP & Future Economic Growth:


Hoisted from the Archives: Risks of Debt: The Real Flaw in Reinhart-Rogoff: 2013: A country that spends and spends and spends and spends and does not tax sufficiently will eventually run into debt-generated trouble. Its nominal interest rates will rise as bondholders fear inflation. Its business leaders will hunker down and try to move their wealth out of the corporations they run for fear of high future taxes on business. Real interest rates will rise because of policy uncertainty, and make many investments that are truly socially productive unprofitable. When inflation takes hold, the web of the division of labor will shrink from a global web he’d together by thin monetary ties to a very small web solidified by social bonds of trust and obligation—and a small division of labor means low productivity. All of this is bound to happen. Eventually. If a government spends and spends and spends but does not tax sufficiently.

But can this happen as long as interest rates remain low? As long as stock prices remain buoyant? As long as inflation remains subdued. My faction of economists—including Larry Summers, Laura Tyson, Paul Krugman, and many many others—believe that it will not…

#hoistedfromthearchives #macro #fiscalpolicy #publicsphere #economicsgonewrong 

“A Republic, If You Can Keep It”: Weekend Reading

Independence hall philadelphia Google Search

James McHenry: Papers: “Monday 17 Sepr. 1787: Read the engrossed constitution. Altered the representation in the house of representatives from 40 to thirty thousand. Dr. Franklin put a paper into Mr. Willson’s hand to read containing his reasons for assenting to the constitution. It was plain, insinuating, persuasive-and in any event of the system guarded the Doctors fame. Mr. Randolp[h], Mr. Mason, and Mr. Gerry declined signing. The other members signed…

…Being opposed to many parts of the system I make a remark why I signed it and mean to support it.

Firs[t]ly I distrust my own judgement, especially as it is opposite to the opinion of a majority of gentlemen whose abilities and patriotism are of the first cast; and as I have had already frequent occasions to be convinced that I have not always judged right.

Secondly Alterations may be obtained, it being provided that the concurrence of 2/3 of the Congress may at any time introduce them.

Thirdly Comparing the inconveniences and the evils which we labor under and may experience from the present confederation, and the little good we can expect from it-with the possible evils and probable benefits and advantages promised us by the new system, I am clear that I ought to give it all the support in my power.

Major Jackson Secr[etar]y to carry it to Congress. Injunction of secrecy taken off. Members to be provided with printed copies. Adjourned sine die. Gent[leme]n. of Con[necticut] dined together at the City Tavern.

A lady asked Dr. Franklin: “Well, Doctor, what have we got—a republic or a monarchy?” “A republic”, replied the Doctor, “if you can keep it”. (The lady here aluded to was Mrs. Powel of Philada[delphia]._

Mr. Martin said one day in company with Mr. Jenifer, speaking of the system before Convention: “I’ll be hanged if ever the people of Maryland agree to it. I advise you said Mr. Jenifer to stay in Philadelphia lest you should be hanged.”


Liveblogging: The Anglo-Saxon Chronicle: Astronomy, Northumbria, and Victories of Cynric

Journey To Normandy Scene 1

The Anglo-Saxon Chronicle (J.A. Giles and J. Ingram trans.): Astronomy, Northumbria, and Victories of Cynric: “A.D. 538. This year the sun was eclipsed, fourteen days before the calends of March, from before morning until nine…

…A.D. 540. This year the sun was eclipsed on the twelfth day before the calends of July; and the stars showed themselves full nigh half an hour over nine.

A.D. 544. This year died Wihtgar; and men buried him at Carisbrook.

A.D. 547. This year Ida began his reign; from whom first arose the royal kindred of the Northumbrians.

Ida was the son of Eoppa, Eoppa of Esa, Esa of Ingwy, Ingwy of Angenwit, Angenwit of Alloc, Alloc of Bennoc, Bennoc of Brand, Brand of Balday, Balday of Woden. Woden of Fritholaf, Fritholaf of Frithowulf, Frithowulf of Finn, Finn of Godolph, Godolph of Geata.

Ida reigned twelve years. He built Bamburgh-Castle, which was first surrounded with a hedge, and afterwards with a wall.

A.D. 552. This year Cynric fought with the Britons on the spot that is called Sarum, and put them to flight.

Cerdic was the father of Cynric, Cerdic was the son of Elesa, Elesa of Esla, Esla of Gewis, Gewis of Wye, Wye of Frewin, Frewin of Frithgar, Frithgar of Brand, Brand of Balday, Balday of Woden.

In this year Ethelbert, the son of Ermenric, was born, who on the two and thirtieth year of his reign received the rite of baptism, the first of all the kings in Britain.

A.D. 556. This year Cynric and Ceawlin fought with the Britons at Beranbury…

#liveblogging #history #anglosaxonchronicle 

A Year Ago on Equitable Growth: Fifteen Worthy Reads from Around the Week of July 5, 2018

stacks and stacks of books

Most Important: 1921—six years after the Ku Klux Klan revival sparked by “Birth of a Nation”—the early 20th Century’s “Uncle Tom’s Cabin” in reverse: 39 officially dead, 800 wounded, more than 35 blocks destroyed, more than 10000 people left homeless: Erik Loomis (2016): Tulsa: “The Tulsa Race Riot is one of the most shameful events in all of American history and as we know, that’s a high bar to meet…

Worthy Reads at Equitable Growth:

  1. Austin Clemens: Realizing the promise of place-based economics requires more and better data from across the United States – Equitable Growth: “The recent pivot by researchers and policymakers to studying the economics of place is a welcome development. But this research is especially data intensive. If policymakers are serious about the promise of place-based policymaking, then they also need to be serious about collecting good data and making it accessible to researchers…

  2. Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Maggie R. Jones, and Sonya R. Porter: Race and economic opportunity in the United States: “Racial disparities persist across generations in the US…. Black men have much lower chances of climbing the income ladder than white men even if they grow up on the same block. In contrast, black and white women have similar rates of mobility…

  3. Heather Boushey and Greg Leiserson: Worsening Inequality: “The Tax Act worsens inequality both in the tax changes and in the program cuts used to address the resulting deficit…

  4. Gabriel Zucman: If Ronaldo Can’t Beat Uruguay, the Least He Can Do Is Pay Taxes: “Have you ever been invited by a Swiss bank to a golf tournament in Miami or an exhibition’s opening in Paris? Neither have I. But the world’s “ultrahigh-net-worth individuals”—whether they live in the United States, France or elsewhere—regularly are. Law firms and financial intermediaries sell the superrich on shell companies, offshore bank accounts, trusts and foundations—arrangements whose purpose is to conceal assets by disconnecting wealth, and the income it generates, from its actual owner. Although this industry presents itself as legal and legitimate, in many cases the products it sells are illegal…

  5. Gene Kimmelman and Mark Cooper: A communications oligopoly on steroids: “Only with appropriately focused regulatory oversight alongside strict antitrust enforcement can the service providers in the cable, telecommunications, wireless, and broadband industries be driven to offer competitive, nondiscriminatory, innovative, and socially beneficial video and broadband services that maximize consumer value and choice in both the economic market and the marketplace of ideas…

Worthy Reads Elsewhere:

  1. Janos Kornai: Speaking for Open Inquiry at the Central European University: “I am very proud to have been awarded the Open Society Prize…. CEU does more than merely advocate the idea of university autonomy, the fundamental principle of the world of universities that goes back hundreds of years. CEU embodies that idea in the way it works, giving us an example of how to put it into practice. The life of CEU is characterized by free debate, discussion of conflicting ideas, competition between schools of thought, openness to alternative principles, and diversity. Ideas do not recognize borders, do not apply for entry or exit visas…

  2. Given the magnitude of the shocks that have hit the world economy since 2005, Alan Greenspan’s decision in the mid-1990s to set the Federal Reserve’s inflation target at 2% per year rather than 3% or 4% per year looks like a bad mistake. Given what they learned and what we are still learning since 2005, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and now Jay Powell’s refusal to revisit Greenspan’s decision is more likely than not to prove a worse mistake. So I go further out on this limb than does the very sharp Karl Smith: Karl Smith: Hey Fed, Don’t Be Scared of a Little More Inflation: “Even if the economy is at full employment, there’s benefit to letting it run hot for a while…

  3. It would be good for me to understand this: Victor Chernozhukov et al.: [1608.00060] Double/Debiased Machine Learning for Treatment and Causal Parameters: “Most modern supervised statistical/machine learning (ML) methods are explicitly designed to solve prediction problems very well..

  4. Required for equitable growth: predictability—established rules of the game and due process of law, rather than random reality-TV policies by chaos monkeys. Also required: an activist government willing to create and support the communities of engineering practice and the essential services that underpin the highly-productive value chains of the future. Plus a willingness to enforce an equitable income distribution. Ricardo Hausmann fears that the United States—at least the Trump-dominated United States—has none of these: Ricardo Hausmann: Does the West Want What Technology Wants? : “To ascertain what technology wants requires understanding what it is and how it grows. Technology is really three forms of knowledge…

  5. The answer is: probably in the late 1960s: Joe McMahon: When was the last time all the computing power in the world equaled one iPhone?: “When was the last time all the computing power in the world equaled one iPhone?…

  6. es, the ability to plan your family while being sexually active was a huge liberating force for young American women in the mid-20th Century: Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz: The Power of the Pill: Oral Contraceptives and Women’s Career and Marriage Decisions

  7. It is not clear to me that equal percentage income boosts relative to baseline is what we “should” expect education to do. That we fall short of even that yardstick indicates that things are worse than I had believed: Noah Smith: The Rich Get the Most Out of College: “Tim Bartik… Brad Hershbein… the college earnings premium—the lifetime difference in earnings between those who get a bachelor’s degree and those who only finish high school—was substantial for people from all income backgrounds…

  8. “Perhaps smack of desperation, and pull us into a tighter relationship with other parts of government”—those were the arguments of Vince Reinhart in 2003 against the aggressive policies (like currency depreciation, money-financed tax cuts, discount-window lending, purchases of corporate debt and equity, and reductions in reserve requirements) that Ben Bernanke had previously argued that a central bank should follow at the zero lower bound. But if you maintain your independence by not doing the right thing, you were never independent in the first place. And desperation is the appropriate response to being at the zero lower bound on interest rates: it is a desperate situation. I think that somehow Bernanke (and Reinhart, and the Fed) came to believe that “encouraging investors to expect short rates to be lower in the future than they currently anticipate; shifting relative supplies to affect risk premiums; oversupplying reserves at the zero funds rate” had a good chance of being effective. It was not clear to me why they should have thought this. And it looks like they were wrong: Laurence Ball (2012): Ben Bernanke and The Zero Bound

  9. The search for “robust determinants” has always seemed to me to be wrong-headed. We should be searching for effective policies. And which determinants are “robust” will depend on what other determinants are in the mix. And an effective policy is likely to shift the values of more than one “determinant”: Dani Rodrik: “Is ‘export sophistication’ (as in Hausmann, Hwang, and Rodrik 2007) the only robust determinant of economic growth? Robust, that is, to correcting for endogenity and OVB as best as possible? This new paper from the IMF says yes https://t.co/C3DkRzqr8d…”

  10. 1921—six years after the Ku Klux Klan revival sparked by “Birth of a Nation”—the early 20th Century’s “Uncle Tom’s Cabin” in reverse: 39 officially dead, 800 wounded, more than 35 blocks destroyed, more than 10000 people left homeless: Erik Loomis (2016): Tulsa: “The Tulsa Race Riot is one of the most shameful events in all of American history and as we know, that’s a high bar to meet…


Liveblogging: The Anglo-Saxon Chronicle: Descendants of Cerdic to Ethelred Son of Ethelwulf Son of Egbert

Journey To Normandy Scene 1

The Anglo-Saxon Chronicle (J.A. Giles and J. Ingram trans.): Origins of Wessex: “A.D. 495. This year came two leaders into Britain, Cerdic and Cynric his son, with five ships, at a place that is called Cerdic’s-ore. And they fought with the Welsh the same day. Then he died, and his son Cynric succeeded to the government, and held it six and twenty winters. Then he died; and Ceawlin, his son, succeeded, who reigned seventeen years. Then he died; and Ceol succeeded to the government, and reigned five years. When he died, Ceolwulf, his brother, succeeded, and reigned seventeen years. Their kin goeth to Cerdic. Then succeeded Cynebils, Ceolwulf’s brother’s son, to the kingdom; and reigned one and thirty winters. And he first of West-Saxon kings received baptism…

…Then succeeded Cenwall, who was the son of Cynegils, and reigned one and thirty winters. Then held Sexburga, his queen, the government one year after him. Then succeeded Escwine to the kingdom, whose kin goeth to Cerdic, and held it two years. Then succeeded Centwine, the son of Cynegils, to the kingdom of the West-Saxons, and reigned nine years. Then succeeded Ceadwall to the government, whose kin goeth to Cerdic, and held it three years. Then succeeded Ina to the kingdom of the West-Saxons, whose kin goeth to Cerdic, and reigned thirty-seven winters. Then succeeded Ethelheard, whose kin goeth to Cerdic, and reigned sixteen years. Then succeeded Cuthred, whose kin goeth to Cerdic, and reigned sixteen winters. Then succeeded Sigebriht, whose kin goeth to Cerdic, and reigned one year. Then succeeded Cynwulf, whose kin goeth to Cerdic, and reigned one and thirty winters. Then succeeded Brihtric, whose kin goeth to Cerdic, and reigned sixteen years. Then succeeded Egbert to the kingdom, and held it seven and thirty winters, and seven months. Then succeeded Ethelwulf, his son, and reigned eighteen years and a half. Ethelwulf was the son of Egbert, Egbert of Ealmund, Ealmund of Eafa, Eafa of Eoppa, Eoppa of Ingild, Ingild of Cenred (Ina of Cenred, Cuthburga of Cenred, and Cwenburga of Cenred), Cenred of Ceolwald, Ceolwald of Cuthwulf, Cuthwulf of Cuthwine, Cuthwine of Celm, Celm of Cynric, Cynric of Creoda, Creoda of Cerdic.

Then succeeded Ethelbald, the son of Ethelwulf, to the kingdom, and held it five years. Then succeeded Ethelbert, his brother, and reigned five years. Then succeeded Ethelred, his brother, to the kingdom, and held it five years…

#liveblogging #history #anglosaxonchronicle 

June 28, 2019: Weekly Forecasting Update


The right response to almost all economic data releases is: Next to nothing has changed with respect to the forecast. Worth noting is that the ten-year CPI inflation breakeven is now 1.6%. If investors were risk neutral with respect to bearing this particular inflation risk, this breakeven ought to be 2.5% if investors expected the Federal Reserve to meet its 2.0% PCE inflation target over the next decade:

Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Nowcasting Report: June 28, 2019: “The… Staff Nowcast stands at 1.3% for 2019:Q2 and 1.2% for 2019:Q3…


Key Points:

Specifically, it is still the case that:

  • The Trump-McConnell-Ryan tax cut has been a complete failure at boosting the American economy through increased investment in America.
    • But it has been a success in making the rich richer and thus America more unequal.
    • And it delivered a short-term demand-side Keynesian fiscal stimulus to growth that has now ebbed.
  • U.S. potential economic growth continues to be around 2%/year.
  • There are still no signs the U.S. has entered that phase of the recovery in which inflation is accelerating.
  • There are still no signs of interest rate normalization: secular stagnation continues to reign.
  • There are still no signs the the U.S. is at “overfull employment” in any meaningful sense.

  • Changes from 1 month ago: A 1.0%-point decrease in our estimate of what production will be over April-June. The Federal Reserve has—behind the curve—become convinced that it raised interest rates too much in 2018.

  • A change from 3 months ago: The U.S. grew at 3.2%/year in the first quarter of 2019—1.6%-points higher than had been nowcast—but the growth number you want to put in your head in assessing the strength of the economy is the 1.6%/year number that had been nowcast. The falling-apart of Trump’s trade negotiating strategy with China will harm Americans and may disrupt value chains, and the might be becoming visible in the data flow.

  • A change from 6 months ago: Stunning dysfunctionality in the British Conservative Party has put a destructive, hard, no-deal Brexit on the scenario list…

#macro #forecasting #highlighted
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